Thoth, The scribe of Ra. God of Knowledge, Measurement, Wisdom, Records, Thought, Intelligence, the Mind, Logic, Reason, Reading, Secrets, Number, and Writing. Just about everything Relevant to DFS. One cannot use any of these things without invoking this Neter. These are the NBA plays for 2/10 from the scribe translated by me.
Marc Gasol vs GS, $7,400
I don’t know why Draft Kings hates centers, but they do. The prices on all centers always seem to be too cheap, and tonight is no different. My favorite of those centers is Marc Gasol. The Grizz get the Warriors at home tonight in a game with a total of 215.5, which is surprisingly high for a Memphis game. Even though they like to grind games out, there should be a decent amount of scoring in this one with the best team in the league coming into town.
This will also be a massive pace up game for Memphis, an environment in which Gasol has done well in. In games with a projected pace differential of 5 or more, Gasol is averaging 41.39 DKPPG.
The Warriors have not done well against the center position this year, as their DVP of 20th will show. High usage centers have crushed them this year too. Centers with a usage rate of 26% or more are averaging 44.75 DKPPG with a 3.98 +/- on 63.6% consistency. What really makes this matchup juicy is that the Warriors are without starting center Zaza Pachulia. This means that Gasol will be matching up against shaqtin’ a fool legend JaVale McGee for most of the game, as he is the only other true center on the roster. Gasol should own both the paint and the boards tonight.
Darren Collison vs ATL, $5,400
To say the kings aren’t healthy would be an understatement. They refuse to sign anyone either, which results in them consistently rolling out less than 10 bodies a night. Tonight they have just 9. With the injury to Ty Lawson, that leaves Collison as the only point guard on the roster. Also worth mentioning that he is SG eligible on Draft Kings, which is where I will be using him.
The Kings will be without Gay, Cassipi, Temple, and Lawson. Looking at per 36 numbers with all them off the court, Collisons numbers aren’t that great. He has a 21.5% usage rate and is averaging 0.78 fantasy points per minute. However the Kings are still implied for 103 points. Expect Collison to be the number 2 option and handle the bulk of the scoring. Not to mention he is walking into 35+ minutes against one of the most fantasy friendly teams to point guards.
If you were to just look at DVP numbers, Atlanta doesn’t jump off the page as a great matchup. DVP can sometimes be deceiving, as the data shows a different story. On the season, the PGs against the Hawks projected for 15 or more fantasy points are averaging a 4.32 +/-. In the last 5 games that number jumps up to 5.57. Expect Collison to have a good night.
James Johnson @BKN, $6,000
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, games that Brooklyn plays in are always great spots for fantasy goodness. They play at a fast pace and play no defense. With a spread at just 6 points, we have another one tonight.
The Heat have been banged up all season, but that hasn’t stopped them from being scorching hot lately. They have won 12 games in a row, making them the hottest team in the league. Pat Riley has always said he isn’t a fan of the draft, so maybe the Heat really are playing for the playoffs when they should be tanking. Anyways, expect that win streak to extend at least 1 more game.
James Johnson has been a guy that has really put everything together lately. He’s doing it all for this team. Without Dion Waiters tonight I expect Johnson to put even more responsibility on his shoulders. His per 36 numbers without Waiters (and Richardson, McRoberts, Winslow) are really good. He’s averaging 38 DKPPG with a 24% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. He also went for 44 points in the only full game played this season without all of those guys.
This is also a massive pace up game for Miami, which Johnson has thrived in. In games with a pace differential of 5 or more, he’s averaging a 5.22 +/-. Throw in the matchup with Brooklyn and things look even better, with him putting up 39 DK points last matchup against them.
Will Barton @ NYK, $6,100
Tonight the over/under for the Denver New York game currently sites at 229, which is 10 points higher than the next game. Naturally we want some exposure to that game, but that is easier said than done. The Nuggets are without Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, and Emmanuel Mudiay, but Draft Kings has been quick to raise the salary of everyone else. Factoring in said salary, Will Barton has great upside.
With all those bodies off the floor, Barton is averaging 36.8 DKPPG, a 24% usage rate, and 1.04 fantasy points per minute per 36. He’s also taken 18 and 19 shots his last 2 games. Expect him to continue chucking tonight.
This is a great spot for Denver in general, as the Knicks are just not very good defensively. On paper the Kinicks are 13th in DVP against small forwards, but the last 5 games small forwards projected for at least 15 fantasy points are averaging a 3.45 +/-. Barton also scored 36 points the last time he faced the Knicks. Expect him to be in the same range tonight.
Michael Beasley vs LAL, $3,900
Terrible news for all of Milwaukee as Jabari Parker has a torn ACL. With Jabari off the floor that opens up a ton of minutes and usage, but it isn’t easy to tell who will benefit. Jason Kidd is very unpredictable with his rotations. However 48 minutes have to be played at the power forward position and there is only 3 power forwards on the roster: Mirza Teletovic, Thon Maker, and the guy that played the whole 4th quarter when Parker went out Michael Beasley.
Running the numbers with Parker off the floor show good things for Beasley. Per 36, he is averaging 32.5 DKPPG, a 26.5% usage rate, and 0.93 fantasy points per minute.
The matchup is great too. The Lakers are one of those teams that play fast and don’t play any defense. They haven’t really defended any position well, and have gotten crushed by power forwards lately. PFs projected for at least 15 points have averaged a 5.10 +/- on 75% consistency in the last 5 games.
At just $3900 it is hard for Beasley to not pay off that price tag if he gets 20+ minutes.
Daily Fantasy Scribe 